Climate Science at COP30 Highlights Accelerating Risks

New data reveals faster warming, ecosystem collapse, and rising human toll

As COP30 unfolds in Belém, Brazil, climate scientists are presenting sobering updates on the pace and impact of global warming. Recent studies show that temperatures and sea levels are rising faster than previously recorded, while ecosystems such as coral reefs and rainforests are nearing irreversible tipping points. The human cost is also mounting, with heat-related deaths and productivity losses becoming more widespread. Meanwhile, political shifts threaten the continuity of climate research in key regions.

Warming Trends and Thresholds

Global temperatures are now increasing at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, nearly 50% faster than in the 1990s and 2000s. Sea level rise has also accelerated, reaching 4.5 mm per year over the last decade compared to 1.85 mm annually since 1900. Scientists warn that the world is on track to surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold by 2030, a critical point beyond which irreversible damage is likely. Already, average global temperatures have risen by 1.3–1.4°C since the pre-industrial era.

This accelerated warming has prompted updates to baseline data used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The revised figures are expected to influence future climate models and policy decisions. Researchers emphasize the urgency of mitigation efforts to slow these trends. Without significant intervention, the window to avoid catastrophic outcomes is rapidly closing.

Ecosystem Collapse and Fire Risk

Warm-water corals are undergoing near-total die-off due to repeated marine heatwaves, marking a potential climate tipping point. The Amazon rainforest faces a similar threat, with projections suggesting it could shift into a savannah-like ecosystem if deforestation and warming continue unchecked. In the Arctic and Antarctic, ice loss is exposing darker ocean surfaces that absorb more solar radiation, further amplifying warming. These changes also disrupt phytoplankton growth, which plays a key role in absorbing atmospheric CO₂.

Wildfires remain a persistent hazard, with 3.7 million square kilometers burned between March 2024 and February 2025—an area roughly the size of India and Norway combined. Although this is slightly below the two-decade average, the fires released more CO₂ due to the combustion of carbon-dense forests. Scientists are concerned that fire seasons may become more intense and frequent. The combination of heatwaves, drought, and land degradation continues to elevate wildfire risk globally.

Human Impact and Scientific Challenges

Heat-related health risks are escalating, with half the world’s population already affected, according to U.N. agencies. Productivity losses are estimated at 2–3% per degree above 20°C, translating to over $1 trillion in global economic losses last year alone. In Europe, researchers linked 24,400 deaths this summer to heat exposure, attributing up to 70% of those fatalities to climate-driven conditions. A separate study estimated 62,700 heat-related deaths during the previous summer across 32 countries.

Despite these findings, climate science faces political headwinds. The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has proposed cutting NASA Earth Science funding by half and eliminating NOAA’s climate research arm, raising concerns about data continuity. In contrast, countries like China, the UK, Japan, and the EU are increasing public science budgets. The EU recently opened its real-time weather monitoring systems to public access, aiming to enhance transparency and resilience.