Microwave Outlook 2025: Capacity, Bands, and AI Management

• Ericsson’s Microwave Outlook projects near‑parity with fiber by 2030, rising E‑band use, W/D‑band potential, and AI‑driven network management.

Microwave and fiber near parity by 2030

Ericsson’s latest Microwave Outlook forecasts a near‑even split between microwave and fiber backhaul by 2030, estimating 49 percent microwave and 51 percent fiber. The study notes advanced economies are revisiting microwave as a high‑capacity, resilient option after years of steady fiberization. Operators face rising traffic demands that make microwave an attractive complement to fiber for both mobile and fixed networks. This shift reflects a balance between deployment speed, cost, and the need for diverse transport layers.

E‑band deployments have climbed, now representing about 8 percent of microwave rollouts and outpacing the long‑used 38 GHz band in some markets. Rapid expansions in regions such as India are a key driver behind that growth, increasing the installed base of microwave transceivers to roughly 10.5 million since 2022. Emerging millimeter and sub‑millimeter bands, notably W‑ and D‑bands, are highlighted as future capacity multipliers because they can offer spectrum resources comparable to E‑band advantages. Service providers evaluating future builds will likely weigh hop length, spectrum availability, and propagation tradeoffs when considering these bands.

Doubling capacity with millimeter‑wave techniques

Ericsson’s simulations indicate many existing microwave links can double capacity up to roughly 20 Gbps using mmWave techniques without major hardware changes. The recommended approach in many cases is a 2,000 MHz E‑band channel combined with cross‑polarization interference cancellation (XPIC), especially where spectrum fees are reasonable. Simulation results from three European cities suggest about 96 percent of current links could adopt this method to boost throughput. Alternative upgrade methods still allow nearly four‑fifths of sites to double capacity, offering operators flexibility where E‑band or spectrum economics are constrained.

Network automation and AI are presented as central to managing increasingly complex microwave layers and extracting performance gains. Use cases such as preventive maintenance driven by high‑granularity telemetry let transport teams identify root causes faster and act before failures cascade. Operators who prioritize transport‑layer intelligence may see lower total cost of ownership and improved service reliability. These operational benefits matter as networks scale to meet both current 5G demands and anticipated 6G traffic patterns.

Deployment tradeoffs and market implications

Microwave’s resurgence does not erase fiber’s advantages, but it changes how operators plan redundancy, latency budgets, and site economics. In markets with long lead times or high civil‑works costs for fiber, microwave can deliver near‑term capacity gains while preserving future fiber options. Regulators and spectrum managers will influence adoption through licensing fees and channelization policies that affect the feasibility of wide E‑band channels or access to W/D‑band slices. Continued independent field trials and transparent cost‑benefit analyses will be important for operators deciding where and when to deploy advanced microwave solutions.

W‑band hops can support about 90 percent of typical E‑band hop lengths while D‑band supports about 60 percent, which means W‑band may serve as the closest functional extension of E‑band coverage in many deployments.