SK Hynix Projects 30% Annual Growth in AI Memory

• The company expects high-bandwidth memory demand to surge through 2030, driven by AI expansion and growing customization needs.

AI Expansion Drives HBM Market Outlook

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix anticipates that the global market for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) tailored for artificial intelligence will grow by 30% annually until 2030. This projection reflects rising demand from cloud providers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, whose capital spending on AI infrastructure is expected to increase further. According to Choi Joon-yong, head of HBM business planning at SK Hynix, the link between AI deployment and HBM purchases is direct and increasingly significant. Despite concerns over pricing pressure in the memory sector, the company maintains a confident outlook based on sustained end-user demand.

HBM, a form of dynamic random access memory introduced in 2013, is built by stacking chips vertically to reduce power consumption and save space. This architecture supports the data-intensive requirements of modern AI applications. SK Hynix estimates that the custom HBM market could reach tens of billions of dollars by the end of the decade. The company’s forecast accounts for constraints such as energy availability, suggesting a cautious but optimistic stance.

Customization and Competitive Shifts

Technological changes in next-generation HBM4 production have introduced customer-specific logic dies, or “base dies,” which manage memory operations. This shift makes it harder to substitute one vendor’s product with another, increasing the importance of tailored solutions. SK Hynix currently supplies the majority of HBM chips to Nvidia, while Samsung and Micron contribute smaller volumes. Larger clients receive customized configurations, whereas smaller customers typically rely on standardized offerings.

Choi noted that demand for further customization is likely to grow, with clients requesting specific performance or power characteristics. Samsung recently warned that supply of HBM3E may exceed near-term demand, potentially affecting pricing. Nonetheless, SK Hynix remains confident in its ability to deliver competitive products that meet evolving customer needs. The company views customization as a key driver of future growth in the AI memory segment.

Trade Policy and Market Performance

U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports from countries not manufacturing in the United States or committed to doing so. While details remain unclear, South Korea’s trade envoy stated that Samsung and SK Hynix would likely be exempt due to their U.S.-based investments. SK Hynix is building a chip packaging facility and AI R&D center in Indiana, while Samsung operates fabrication plants in Texas. These developments help shield the companies from potential trade disruptions.

South Korea exported $10.7 billion worth of chips to the U.S. last year, representing 7.5% of its total chip exports. A notable portion of HBM chips are sent to Taiwan for packaging, accounting for 18% of exports in 2024—a 127% increase from the previous year. SK Hynix shares rose 3.5% on Monday, contributing to a 52.4% gain year-to-date, outperforming the KOSPI index. Samsung and Micron have also posted strong performances, reflecting investor confidence in the AI-driven memory market.