The Robotaxi Race is Heating Up Globally in 2025

• IDTechEx Forecasts a 1000 Times Increase in Robotaxi Software Revenue over the Next Twenty Years

2025 has been a massive year so far for SAE level 4 autonomous vehicles, including the first foray outside of robotaxis. Market intelligence firm IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Driving Software and AI in Automotive 2026-2046: Technologies, Markets, Players”, analyzes the progress of robotaxi services to date, and forecasts the software revenue attributed to robotaxis up to 2046, split by region. The role of these different players and their approaches are analyzed, compared, and used to forecast the overall autonomous driving software market.

Increased competition in the US

Waymo has established itself as the leader of robotaxi services, operating in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Austin, and has even established partnerships with Uber and Lyft, the two major ride-hailing companies, which could be considered competitors to Waymo’s business model. With testing being done in Tokyo, it has also recently begun its first activities in international markets.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in June 2025 and later increased its operational area to approximately 170 square miles in Austin, Texas. In September, these rides were opened to the public, and no longer have an onboard human supervisor, while maintaining the remote operators that all robotaxis have. However, more time is required to ascertain whether the technology is mature enough to scale.

Two other companies have opened robotaxi services in the US this year: Zoox and May Mobility. Unlike other companies, Zoox’s robotaxi has been built from the ground up to be an autonomous vehicle. While Waymo’s robotaxis are currently retrofitted Jaguar I-PACEs, and Tesla uses its Model Y, Zoox’s robotaxi doesn’t have a steering wheel, pedals, or a driver’s seat. May Mobility began operating a robotaxi pilot program in September 2025 in collaboration with Lyft, using modified hybrid Toyota Sienna minivans.

Since the exit of Cruise in December 2024, the only company operating robotaxis commercially was Waymo. In the past two months, the activities of other companies suggest that robotaxis could be set to take off. IDTechEx forecasts that by 2046, the US will make up almost a quarter of the software revenue from the robotaxi market globally.

China’s Market Continues to Grow, Europe Will Expand

With the second-largest population in the world, the addressable market for robotaxis in China is massive. In terms of scale, Waymo’s only current competitor is from Apollo Go, owned by technology giant Baidu. Apollo Go is operational in over twelve Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. With a fleet of over one thousand vehicles, it has indicated its intention to serve foreign markets, targeting the UK and Germany by 2026. Considering the current state of the European market and the activities of European companies such as Wayve and Motor AI, Europe could become a key battleground for technology superiority in the future.

The domestic market also has players with hundreds of vehicles, such as Pony.ai and WeRide, and upcoming companies such as Momenta and Black Sesame that are developing autonomous vehicle technology. With such a competitive domestic market, IDTechEx expects China to make up over half of the robotaxi software revenue in 2046.

Another player, AutoX, has come out with the world’s first private SAE level 4 autonomous vehicle, under the new brand name Tensor. Under the name AutoX, the US-based company closed its robotaxi service in China two years ago. It remains to be seen whether this vehicle will enter the market, what it would cost, and how it would handle different responsibilities and liabilities associated with a private autonomous car.

Conclusions

2025 has yielded massive jumps in autonomous vehicle technology, both in hardware and software. IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Driving Software and AI in Automotive 2026-2046: Technologies, Markets, Players”, forecasts a more than 1,000 times increase in software-related revenue for autonomous vehicles from 2026 to 2046. While the US and Chinese markets are moving quickly, we are seeing signs that services in Europe, Japan, the Middle East, and other emerging markets will arrive before the end of the decade.